A USTA Growth Strategy for Tennis?

The USTA recently released its 35-by-35 growth strategy.

• Increase the number of tennis players to 35 million by 2035.

• Build 80,000 courts to increase the total number to 350,000.

• Educate and certify 80,000 qualified professional coaches and others who will provide on-court instruction and facilitation. 

This strategy fulfills the wishes of many who have called for aggressive leadership from the USTA to advance the sport. This short article provides data that informs the debate about whether this strategy is realistic. 

Data for Understanding the Potential for Growth of Tennis

This analysis of the tennis economy evaluates metrics for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The states are sorted by 2023 population. They are then divided into three groups based on their rank: 1 through 10, 11 through 20, and 21 through 51. 

It also considers how select demographics define the tennis population.

• Clarion Research has indicated that at least a portion of 18 states is below the 36th parallel, i.e., the Sunbelt states. The tennis industry changes when people migrate to these states.

• Household income is an estimate of personal purchasing power. The 2024 tennis participation report estimated that the median income for participants was $93,750, compared to the U.S. median HHI of $74,580. The 2022 median HHIs for the 50 states plus the District of Columbia varies from $48,610 in Mississippi to $101,900 in the District of Columbia. The Census Bureau data reports about 131,400 households in 2022, with an average of 2.57 people per household.

• A state-by-state population projection by the Cooper Center at the University of Virginia shows the U.S. population will increase by about 16.0 million between now and 2035. During that period, the 35-by-35 strategy calls for an increase of players by 11.2 million. As the Cooper Center and others revise their state projections through 2035, it will be necessary to monitor them to understand the impact of U.S. immigration policy, the migration between states for social or economic reasons, and the change in tennis participation. 

• The population data in this analysis includes all people, and the TIA/Sports Marketing Surveys exclude people under six years old to calculate market share. These youngsters make up about 6.7% of the U.S. population. 

• The participation report included state 2023 participation values for USTA sections. State values were estimated from this report.

Finally, additional Census data provide insight into how the sex, race, ethnicity, age, and educational attainment of the U.S. population impact the tennis population. 

The Top Ten States

Table I shows data for the ten largest populations. 

• The 2023 population for these states ranges between 10 million and 39 million. About 54% of the U.S. population, 181 million, live in the ten largest states.

• The combined total of the 2023 U.S. Real GDP for these ten states ($15.3 trillion) is about 56.5% of the U.S. total. About 56.6% of tennis participants (13.5 million) live in these ten states. The range is 600,000 to 3.6 million participants. In other words, these ten states have more GDP, population, and number of tennis players than the combined totals for the other 40 states and the District of Columbia.

• Five states are complete or partial Sunbelt states. 

• Indoor courts are necessary in five states. Previous participation reports showed average annual playing occasions were less in areas where indoor facilities were necessary. It is costly to own and play at indoor facilities. 

• Four states have a Median HHI greater than the U.S. average. 

States Ranked 11^th through 20^th

Table II shows data for the states ranked 11th through 20th.

• About 21.7% of the 2035 population, 72.5 million, lives in these ten states. The population range is 5.9 million to 9.3 million.

• The combined total of the 2023 U.S. Real GDP for these ten states ($5.92 trillion) is about 21.6% of the U.S. total. 

• About 21.3% of tennis participants (5.1 million) live in these ten states. The range is 300,000 to 700,000. 

• There is one full and another partial Sunbelt state.

• Indoor courts are necessary in eight states. 

• Five states have a Median HHI greater than the U.S. average. Many players in these states can afford to play indoor tennis.

States Ranked 21st through 50th, and the District of Columbia

Table III shows data for the states ranked 21st through 50th and the District of Columbia.

• The 2023 population for these states ranges between 500,000 and 5.9 million. About 24.3%, 81.5 million, live in these areas.

• The combined total of the 2023 U.S. Real GDP for these states ($5.98 trillion) is about 21.9% of the U.S. total. 

• Only 22.1% of tennis participants (5.3 million) live in these areas. 

• Thirteen states are full or partial Sunbelt states. Some of these states have a combination of small populations and low-income levels.

• Indoor courts are necessary in all or parts of 26 states. 

• There are 14 states plus the District of Columbia with Median HHIs above the national average. Most of the remaining states have income levels well below the national average.

Sex and Race/Ethnicity

This section includes U.S. Census Bureau projections by sex, race, and ethnicity from 2022 to 2035:

Sex

• 50.5% of the U.S. population will be female.

• Between now and then, the male population will increase by 5.0%, and the female population will increase by 5.5%.

The tennis population is predominantly male, but that may gradually change. 

Race and Ethnicity

• The non-Hispanic whites account for 196.3 million, or 58.9% of the population. They will decrease by 3.1% or about 6.1 million by 2035.

• There are about 63.7 million Hispanics. This ethnicity will increase by about 20.5% or about 13.1 million. They currently account for about 19.1% of the population.

• There are approximately 21.0 million Asians. They will increase by 23.7% or about 5.0 million.

• There are about 45.4 million Blacks or 13.8%. They will increase by 7.7% or about 3.5 million.

The U.S. population is predominantly white, but the percentage of whites will decrease. Between now and 2035, the number of Hispanic, Asian, and Black populations will increase. These changes may affect the mix of tennis participants.

Median HHI by race and ethnicity for 2022

• Asian                           $109,400

• Non-Hispanic White   $84,110

• Hispanic (any race)     $62,520

• Black                             $52,080.

It is more likely that Asians and whites will consider playing tennis because their Median HHIs are larger than Hispanics or Blacks.

Median Household Income by Age and Educational Attainment

The U.S. Census Bureau produced 2022 Median HHI by age category. 

• Under 65 years            $85,860

• 65 years and older      $50,200.

They also broke the Under 65 years down into five categories.

• 15 to 24 years               $52,460

• 24 to 34 years               $80,240

• 35 to 44 years               $96,630

• 45 to 54 years             $101,500

• 55 to 64 years               $81,240.

Median HHIs are between 80,400 to $101,500, i.e., they can afford to play tennis. The prime years for playing tennis are 24 to 64.

The Census Bureau also compiled Median HHI data for educational attainment for 2022.

• Total Age 25 and older            $75,980

• No high school diploma          $34,850

• High school, no college           $51,470

• Some college                            $68,690

• Bachelor’s or higher              $118,300

People 25 years or older with a bachelor’s degree are more likely to be able to afford to play tennis, given their educational attainment. The Census Quick Facts website reports that 34.3% of Americans 25+ years old have a bachelor's degree or higher. That is about 68.2% of the population.

Can the Strategy be Implemented?

Nothing happens until you take the first step. The USTA has done that with its 35-by-35 strategy. Thank you! This analysis suggests that additional due diligence would increase the chances of the strategy being successful.

The Dilemma

There is a dilemma. Which comes first – the coaches, the players, or the facilities – or are they developed simultaneously? Who is going to oversee the implementation of the strategy for growth in these three areas?

Attraction and Retention

A&R are fundamentals of successful economic development.

The tennis industry has enjoyed two significant increases in participation since the 1970s. The first boom occurred after the Battle of the Sexes in 1973, and in 2020, COVID-related policies caused participants to swarm the courts. Neither growth spurt occurred because of intentional industry promotional efforts or programs. 

Fifty years ago, tennis players left the sport to play racquetball or join in the running and fitness craze. The latest boom began in 2020 and ended abruptly in 2022. The recent participation report indicated that 23.8 million tennis participants in 2023 played at least once. About 11.8 million played at least ten times (core players) during the year. Core players accounted for about 90% of all play occasions.

What can the industry do differently to attract and retain players, particularly those who play at least once a week?

Instruction and Education

Another fundamental of economic development is workforce training. 

There has been a shortage of tennis professionals and coaches since 2019. Similar shortages have existed in other industries. How will the USPTA, PTR, and ITA elevate its certification and education programs in a way that provides qualified workers for all aspects of tennis - clubs, rec centers, high school, and college programs?

Industry Structure

For at least forty years, the USTA has taken steps to replicate the successful National Governing Bodies in smaller countries that control all aspects of the sport. Is the 35-by-35 strategy a step in that direction, or is it a step in bringing the industry together and encouraging stakeholders to work outside their silos for the good of the cause?

For better or worse, the USTA is a decentralized organization in a decentralized industry. A decentralized organization is beneficial for advancing a sport where states and regions have different needs, resources, and demographics. 

A perfect example of this is the Sunbelt Effect. Americans are migrating to states in the Sunbelt region for many reasons. How does growth management of the sport differ in Sunbelt regions and non-Sunbelt regions?

On the other hand, there is indoor tennis (which is a good thing). The average number of play occasions is less in states that rely on indoor tennis, i.e., non-Sunbelt states. The cost of indoor tennis will continue to increase along with rising energy costs. How can the industry reduce the cost of indoor tennis and make indoor tennis accessible to more players?

In a decentralized industry, how will municipalities, schools, and colleges be incentivized to improve the quality of their tennis programs? Can private sector investors be motivated to invest in the growth of tennis and racquet facilities?

Elite Sport

Tennis is an elite sport, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Although about 70% of players enjoy the sport at park facilities, recreation centers, or school or college courts, some enjoy playing at racquet clubs or country clubs. Specifically, how can the industry create more meaningful support for tennis in all the venues where most people play? How do you advance tennis in recreation, parks, high school, or college settings?

Over 90% of Americans do not play tennis. Not everyone wants to ride bucking broncos in a rodeo, paraglide, break dance, or play tennis. How can the industry increase enthusiasm for tennis? If it is not possible to increase the number of players, can their frequency of play or on-court experience be improved? Is it economically feasible to offer support for programs that make the sport accessible to a broader population?

Closing Thoughts

Whatever its intent, the USTA has drawn a line in the sand with its 35-by-35 strategy. That is a call to action. 

The strategy is thought-provoking. It may not reflect the realities of the industry, but it will generate discussions that have the potential to advance the sport.

Gary Horvath is a USPTA master pro, founder, and past president of the USA Professional Platform Tennis Association, a charter member of PPTR, a certified coach with USA Volleyball, and a long-standing member of the Wilson Advisory Staff. His experience as a tennis pro has covered the entire spectrum from grassroots to college tennis.

In addition, Gary Horvath has conducted extensive business and economic research that has largely supported the state of Colorado's economic development efforts.