All Good Things Must Come to an End – What’s Next?

The tennis industry has enjoyed two significant increases in tennis participation since 1970. The first boom occurred after the Battle of the Sexes in 1973, and in 2020, COVID-related policies caused participants to swarm the courts.

Neither growth spurt occurred because of intentional industry promotional efforts or programs. Fifty years ago, tennis players left the sport to play racquetball or join in the running and fitness craze. The latest boom began in 2020 and ended in 2022. How will the industry retain the recent newcomers?

Highlights of the 2024 U.S. Participation Report follow.

• About 70% of players enjoy the sport at park facilities, recreation centers, or school or college courts.

• Increased participation has occurred in USTA sections with Sun Belt states, solid economic conditions, and states with significant in-migration. These sections typically have more core players and play occasions per participant.

• The percentage of adult core players has declined over the past decade.

• The average number of play occasions in a year is only 22. The calculation of this average includes non-core players. It does not represent the play occasions of the active tennis population because about half of tennis participants are non-core players.

• Participation increased by about 4 million in 2020 and almost 2 million in 2021 and 2022. The number of participants increased by only 250,000 in 2023.

• The demographics for the sport are evolving, but the basic story is the same. Tennis is played primarily by males and whites. Players have incomes greater than $93,750. Most are 54 years or younger.

The age-old proverb says that all good things must come to an end. The question for the industry is, “What’s Next?” The tennis boom that was induced by COVID-related policies has come to an end. How will industry leaders retain and attract participants, tennis professionals, and coaches?

Survey Methodology

The 2024 report includes a description of the methodology for the survey process. This analysis of the data assumes the process produces valid and reliable results. The survey sample is large enough to calculate participation numbers for USTA sections, providing industry leaders with a tool for measuring performance at the local level.

Demographics

The review of demographics includes the following metrics: sex, age, adults vs. juniors, race or ethnicity, and income. The tennis demographics have slowly evolved, but the basic story has changed little.

Sex

There is a higher percentage of male tennis players than in the general population (Table I).

Age of Players

The data in Table II shows a higher percentage of participants in the age categories from 6 to 54 years old than the general population. Almost 84% are less than 55 years old. In 2023, about one in four tennis players were juniors. One-third of participants are in the 25 to 44 range, prime years for playing tennis and working in the profession.

Number of Junior and Adult Players

Adult participation increased every year between 2019 and 2023 (Table III). About 4.7 million adult participants were added (13.1 to 17.8 million). On the other hand, the number of junior players increased by 50.0% from 2019 to 2021 (4.6 million to 6.9 million); however, in 2023, junior participation decreased by one million to 5.9 million.

Race and Ethnicity

The data in Table IV shows that six out of ten tennis players are white non-Hispanic.

Over the past decade, the U.S. population has become more diverse because the white fertility rates have been lower than other races and ethnicities. Over time, this should cause the tennis population to become more racially/ethnically diverse. The high percentage of Asian/Pacific Islander tennis participants in this report might be an unintentional sample bias caused while collecting data for the USTA Hawaii section.

Income

The data in Table V shows the median HHI less than for the U.S. population is $74,580. The estimated median income for tennis participants is $93,750. The income for tennis players is more than that for the U.S. population.

Participation Numbers

In 2023, the market share of people six years and older rose to 7.7%. There were 23.8 million players.

Tennis Participation by USTA Section Sorted by Number of Participants, CAGR 2019-23, Population Share

Growth was uneven across the USTA sections, ranging from compound annualized growth (CAGR) between 2019 and 2023 of 0.4% in the Midwest to 15.9% in the Pacific Northwest. The cause of the variation includes factors such as migration between states, location in the Sunbelt, racial and ethnic mix, household income, the USTA’s marketing of “tennis,” and the tennis infrastructure in these regions.

Tennis Participation by USTA Sections Grouped by Size, CAGR 2019-23, and Market Share

The data in Table VII better illustrates how participation increased differently across the USTA sections.

• About 64% of the increase in participation occurred in 2020. During these four years, the large USTA sections added 2.8 million participants, the medium USTA sections added 2.2 million, and the small USTA sections added 1.2 million.

• Between 2019 and 2023, the CAGR for large sections was 6.6 %, 9.8% for the medium sections, and 6.6% for the small sections. Slower participation growth in the Midwest and Eastern sections reduced the total for large sections. Strong growth typically occurred in Sunbelt states.

• All sections added participants in 2020.

• Four sections added jobs in all four years (Florida, Northern and Southern California, and Texas).

• In 2021, four sections did not add participants (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Missouri Valley, and Southern).

• In 2022, five sections did not add participants (Eastern, Mid-Atlantic, Middle States, Midwest, and Northern).

• Eight sections failed to add participants in 2023 (Eastern, Intermountain, Middle States, New England, Northern, Pacific Northwest, Southern, and Southwest).

The Lifeblood of the Sport – Core Players, Play Occasions, and Playing Locations

Survey respondents had the frequency of their play grouped into one of the following categories:

• Casual (1 to 3 times per year)

• Occasional (4 to 9 times per year)

• Frequent (10 to 20 times per year)

• Regular (21 to 49 times per year)

• Avid (50+ times per year)

Core players play tennis at least ten times annually (Frequent, Regular, or Avid).

Core Players

Overall, about half of all players are core players. 

The data in Table VIII shows the percentage of adult core players declined from 55.6% in 2015 to 49.8% in 2023. Before 2020, the range of core players was 6.5 to 7.5 million. Since 2020, the range of core players has been between 8.1 to 8.3 million.

Typically, the percentage of junior core players has been about 59%, except during the peak of the pandemic, 2020 and 2021. Before 2020, the average number of junior core players was about 2.7 million. After 2020, it has risen to 3.5 million. 

Play Occasions

Play occasions measure the number of times people play during a year. The more people play, the more likely they will spend money on tennis goods and services. Historically, core players have accounted for about 90% of play occasions.

The data in Table IX shows the number of playing occasions is higher when there are more core players. There was a record number of playing occasions in 2023, with 23.8 million players, of which 11.8 million are core players.

Playing Locations

Table X shows that 16.6 million participants, or about 70.0%, play at public parks, schools/colleges, and recreation centers. Approximately 4.0 million participants, or 17.0%, play at clubs. The remaining 3.2 million participants play at other facilities.

Ironically, the industry focuses primarily on certifications and programming for club professionals. It does not provide sufficient attention to coaches and programs for college, high school, parks and recreation tennis.

What’s Next?

All good things must come to an end. That includes the recent COVID-related tennis boom. The boom ended in 2022, but there was a limited increase in overall participation in 2023. At the same time, participation declined in 8 USTA sections in 2023. In addition, participation dropped in two of three years (2021, 2022, 2023) for four USTA sections.

Typically, participation increased the most in Sunbelt states and those with significant in-migration or strong economies. The sections share a common interest in tennis, but each has distinct competencies and challenges.

There is reason to be optimistic about the future. There were 23.8 million participants in 2023. The participation data provides numerous discussion points and challenges for local, regional, and national leaders. How will the industry efficiently supply enough certified tennis professionals and coaches to meet demand? How will it retain the six million new participants that have shown up on its doorsteps since 2020? How will it attract new players, coaches, and professionals today and next year?

Now that the boom is over, "What's Next for your tennis community?"

Gary Horvath is a USPTA master pro, founder, and past president of the USA Professional Platform Tennis Association, a charter member of PPTR, a certified coach with USA Volleyball, and a long-standing member of the Wilson Advisory Staff. His experience as a tennis pro has covered the entire spectrum from grassroots to college tennis.

In addition, Gary Horvath has conducted extensive business and economic research that has largely supported the state of Colorado's economic development efforts.