Padel has become the great growth story of the global racket sports industry.

Courts are opening at record speed. Investors are entering the market. Existing tennis, leisure and fitness operators are converting space to meet demand. Millions of new players are picking up a padel racket for the first time.

But beneath the excitement lies a question that every emerging sport eventually has to answer:

Is padel building a sustainable player pipeline — or simply benefiting from a wave of short-term participation growth?

Across many markets, especially in Europe, padel clubs have become extremely effective at attracting new players. Introductory sessions, holiday camps, discounts and social events have helped create a powerful entry point into the sport.

But getting someone onto court once is not the same as creating a lifelong player.

The next challenge for padel is not acquisition.

It is retention.

And the warning signs from another racket sport’s decline provide an important lesson.

The Squash Warning: What Happens When a Sport Stops Creating New Players

Walk into many leisure centres in the UK today and there is a visible reminder of what can happen when a racket sport fails to replace its ageing customer base.

Many squash courts have disappeared. Others have been converted into gyms, studios or storage areas. In some facilities, the glass walls remain as a reminder of a sport that once had waiting lists and thriving junior programmes.

The decline of squash was not caused by a lack of enjoyment. It was not because racket sports became irrelevant.

It was because the sport struggled to create the next generation of players at scale.

Research from Sport England showed that while overall sports participation continued to grow between 2016 and 2022, squash participation moved in the opposite direction. Regular squash participation declined by around 10%, while casual participation fell by approximately 27%, representing almost 283,000 fewer casual players.

The wider lesson for padel is clear:

A sport cannot rely forever on the enthusiasm of its first wave of adopters.

Eventually, every sport has to answer the same question:

Who replaces today’s players when they move on?

Participation Growth Is Not Enough

Padel’s current numbers are impressive.

According to the International Padel Federation World Padel Report 2025, the sport has grown to more than 35 million players globally, with more than 77,000 courts worldwide. Europe remains the heart of the game, accounting for approximately 70% of global courts and almost 60% of players.

The UK has become one of the fastest-growing padel markets, with the Lawn Tennis Association reporting hundreds of venues and close to 1,000 courts across the country.

That growth is creating enormous commercial opportunity.

But history shows that participation spikes alone do not guarantee long-term health.

Tennis provides a useful comparison.

While squash struggled to maintain its player base, tennis invested heavily in structured junior development. Programmes such as LTA Youth created clear entry points, progression pathways and links between schools, coaches and clubs.

The result has been a much stronger player pipeline.

Sport England data has shown millions of children engaging with tennis, while the LTA has highlighted the importance of thousands of trained teachers and coaches delivering structured tennis opportunities through schools and clubs.

The difference is not that tennis made children play.

It created a reason for them to keep playing.

From Junior Sessions to Real Academies

This is where padel faces one of its biggest strategic challenges.

Across the industry, clubs are increasingly offering junior sessions, holiday camps and introductory programmes.

That is positive.

But many operators risk confusing activity with development.

A junior session gets children onto court.

An academy creates players.

The difference is significant.

A genuine junior pathway requires:

• age and ability-based progression

• consistent weekly coaching

• clear milestones

• coach continuity

• competition opportunities

• engagement with parents

• a route from beginner to advanced player

The foundations of a sport are not built at major championships or federation headquarters.

They are built on Tuesday afternoons at local clubs, when a nine-year-old decides whether this is something they want to continue doing for the next decade.

As one operator recently observed:

The distinction matters because the commercial value of a young player is not measured in one booking.

It is measured over years.

The Coaching Model Problem

The challenge is not simply cultural.

It is structural.

Many padel clubs operate using a freelance coaching model, where coaches run their own businesses inside venues.

This model has helped padel grow quickly because it keeps costs flexible and allows talented coaches to build communities.

However, it can create a fundamental disconnect:

Who owns the player relationship?

In many cases, the coach does.

The club owns the court, but the coach owns the customer.

This creates a natural commercial tension.

Adult coaching sessions during peak evening hours are immediately profitable.

Junior development programmes are slower to build, often operate during quieter periods and require long-term investment before generating significant returns.

From a pure short-term business perspective, the incentive is obvious.

But from a sport development perspective, it creates a problem.

Who is responsible for creating the next generation of players?

The Customer Lifetime Value Opportunity

Other industries have understood this principle for decades.

Retailers do not focus only on today’s transaction. They focus on lifetime customer value.

Financial institutions spend heavily acquiring young customers because they understand the value of a relationship over decades.

The first interaction is not where the profit is created.

The relationship is the asset.

Padel operators need to view junior programmes through the same lens.

A child entering a structured academy is not simply a participant.

They represent:

• years of court bookings

• future membership revenue

• family engagement

• parents spending time at the venue

• future coaching income

• a potential lifelong connection to the club

The fitness industry has demonstrated the importance of community and accountability in retention. Research has repeatedly shown that people exercising within social groups or structured programmes are significantly more likely to remain engaged than those participating alone.

The same principle applies to racket sports.

A player who belongs to a community is harder to lose.

The Window of Opportunity Is Now

Some operators may argue that padel is still too young to worry about long-term player pipelines.

Demand remains high.

New players continue to arrive.

The market still feels unstoppable.

But that is exactly when investment in the future matters most.

Squash did not suddenly disappear overnight.

Its decline happened gradually, while many believed the existing player base would continue.

By the time the problem became obvious, the pipeline had already disappeared.

Building junior pathways takes years.

Creating coaches takes years.

Developing competitive players takes years.

The work must begin before the market needs it.

Padel’s Defining Business Decision

The next phase of padel’s growth will not simply be measured by the number of courts built.

It will be measured by the number of players retained.

Holiday discounts and introductory offers are valuable tools. They create awareness and remove barriers.

But they are only the beginning.

The operators who succeed long-term will be those that move beyond selling court time and start building communities, pathways and player journeys.

Padel has already proven it can attract people.

The next challenge is proving it can keep them.

Because the biggest risk facing the sport is not that people stop discovering padel.

It is that the industry fails to create the systems that turn today’s beginners into tomorrow’s lifelong players.

And that is a decision being made by clubs, coaches and operators right now.