Padel's Next Growth Story Isn't About Countries. It's About Districts.

For the past decade, the global padel story has been defined by explosive expansion.

Courts have grown from roughly 10,000 in 2016 to more than 77,000 worldwide by the end of 2025. More than 35 million people now play the sport, and forecasts suggest the global court count could surpass 230,000 by 2035.

But according to a new report from CAA Portas, the most important development in padel today isn't how fast the sport is growing—it's where value is concentrating.

The report, Padel Super Clusters: From Global Growth to Local Concentration, argues that while padel has become a global sport, its economics remain intensely local. And that distinction could determine the next generation of winners and losers across the industry.

The End of the "Country-Level" Conversation

For years, investors and operators have evaluated padel markets through national metrics: player participation, court counts, and growth rates.

CAA Portas believes that's increasingly the wrong lens.

Countries tell us where padel is large. Cities tell us where it is visible. But districts tell us where it becomes economically viable.

The report's central thesis is straightforward: growth does not automatically create value.

Many markets are experiencing rapid court expansion, yet remain fragmented. Courts are spread across metropolitan areas, player activity is dispersed, and utilisation struggles to reach the levels required for sustained outperformance.

In contrast, a small number of districts have developed dense ecosystems where infrastructure, players, operators, coaches, leagues, and events reinforce one another.

CAA Portas calls these locations "superclusters."

Why Density Beats Scale

One of the report's most compelling insights is that padel's economics differ fundamentally from many other racket sports.

Unlike tennis, which has traditionally expanded through public and institutional infrastructure, or pickleball, which often leverages existing facilities, padel is largely driven by private investment.

That creates a different supply dynamic.

Operators need high utilisation to justify investment in multi-court venues. As a result, courts tend to cluster in locations where demand is strongest, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of participation, competition, and investment.

The report describes this as a "cluster flywheel":

• Court density creates player liquidity.

• Player liquidity drives utilisation.

• Utilisation supports pricing power.

• Strong economics attract further investment.

• Greater ecosystem depth strengthens demand.

Over time, these districts become regional magnets for players and businesses alike.

In other words, participation creates potential. Density creates value.

Only Two Global Superclusters

After analysing districts across leading and emerging padel markets, CAA Portas identified a sharp divide between perceived clusters and genuine superclusters.

Many well-known padel destinations—including Stockholm, Buenos Aires, and Bali—demonstrate strong adoption but lack the concentration required to create true cluster dynamics.

Only two districts globally achieved what the report defines as supercluster status:

Al Quoz, Dubai

Al Quoz ranked first globally, combining 203 courts, high spatial density, and an 86% indoor court ratio. The district represents a capital-led model of cluster formation, where concentrated investment and industrial real estate availability accelerated development.

Alcobendas, Madrid

Alcobendas ranked second and represents a very different pathway. Rather than rapid capital deployment, it evolved through decades of organic ecosystem growth, benefiting from Madrid's deep padel culture, affluent catchment area, and layered infrastructure development.

While the two districts were built differently, they arrive at remarkably similar outcomes: high utilisation, deep player liquidity, and sustained economic performance.

The implication is important.

There is no single formula for building a supercluster. But there are clear structural requirements.

The Emerging Geography of Opportunity

Beyond the top two, the report highlights a second tier of strong cluster districts including:

• Interlomas (Mexico City)

• Sant Martí (Barcelona)

• Lungotevere (Rome)

• Zona Libre / El Bajío (Guadalajara)

• Milla de Oro (Marbella)

• Las Condes (Santiago)

• Midtown (Miami)

• Mussafah (Abu Dhabi)

However, CAA Portas argues that most remain below the threshold required for true supercluster economics.

The report also identifies six districts to watch over the next three to five years, including London's Stratford corridor, South Florida, Jakarta, Johannesburg, Monterrey, and the French Riviera.

Each shows signs of cluster formation but still faces structural gaps around density, ecosystem depth, or operator concentration.

What This Means for the Industry

Perhaps the most significant takeaway is that padel's next phase will not be driven by court expansion alone.

The industry's first chapter was about growth.

The next chapter will be about concentration.

CAA Portas expects court supply to continue growing faster than cluster formation. As a result, economic value will increasingly concentrate within a limited number of high-density districts rather than being distributed evenly across markets.

For investors, that means underwriting district-level fundamentals rather than national growth narratives.

For operators, it means viewing neighbouring venues as part of the ecosystem rather than simply competitors.

For developers, it creates opportunities to position padel as an anchor tenant within mixed-use projects and industrial corridors.

And for brands, sponsors, and federations, it reinforces the importance of activating dense local communities rather than pursuing broad geographic coverage.

The Bigger Picture

The report ultimately challenges one of the most common assumptions in the global padel boom: that more courts automatically create stronger markets.

They don't.

What matters is where those courts are located, how closely they interact, and whether they generate enough player liquidity to sustain a self-reinforcing ecosystem.

The future of padel may still be global.

But according to CAA Portas, the future of padel economics will be decided one district at a time.