The Tennis Industry Needs to Bring Its “A” Game to Remain Relevant

Like many industries, the tennis industry has struggled to attract and retain players and qualified teaching professionals. Between now and 2035, the industry will have to bring its “A” game to maintain participation levels and provide qualified teaching professionals and coaches to lead the industry. A dilemma facing all industries is the slowdown in the growth of the U.S. population between now and 2035.

This document analyzes the change in U.S. population, provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, from 1930 through 2023. It then looks at the Census Bureau projections through 2035 and the changes by age categories that are pertinent to the tennis industry. Note the link to a PowerPoint presentation with additional analysis, charts, and findings.

U.S. Population vs. Annual Change (1930 to 2035)

Chart I shows the U.S. population from 1930 to 2035. It was 123.2 million in 1930 and increased to 334.9 million in 2023. The Census Bureau projects it will be 349.8 million in 2035. Looking at the chart, it appears the level of population growth has been steady.

The year-over-year (YOY) population changes, shown by the red line and the data on the right axis, tell a different story. The peak year of growth for the Baby Boomers was in 1960. That year, the population increased by 3.6 million. After a decline for Generation X, the change in the population caused by the Millennials generation peaked at 3.4 million in 1991. Since then, the YOY population change has trended downward. It bottomed out at 567,000 in 2021, less than any of the population changes in the 1930s.

U.S. Population vs. Annual Change (2023 to 2035)

The Census Bureau has projected that the population will continue to increase at a declining rate from 2023 to 2035, as shown in Chart II. During this period, the population will grow from 334.9 to 350.8 million (yellow bars), a gain of 15.9 million. At the same time, the annual population change declined from 1.6 million in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2035 (red line).

Population Change (The Prime Years)

Finally, Chart III shows the change in population for the prime years for tennis players and teaching professionals and coaches (25 to 54 years). The population change was erratic. It increased by 508,700 in 2023, peaked at 927,300 in 2031, and fell to 410,700 in 2035.

With this as an overview, the remainder of the document looks more closely at the data by age categories within three primary categories will be pre-youth/youth, prime years, and senior/super senior.

 Population Change by Age Categories (Pre-Youth and Youth)

Table I shows the change in population for pre-youth and youth (0 to 24 years). The tennis industry should be concerned by these trends. Overall, the population declines in the pre-youth and youth categories.  

The population of the 0 to 5 years group was 22.2 million in 2023. It will decline slightly between then and 2035. While this is not a primary market for tennis participation, the lack of growth indicates there will be minimal growth as this group matures.

The news is worse for the youth categories:

• In 2023, there were 28.2 million in the 6 to 12 years category. By 2035, it will decline by 1.8 million, a drop of 6.4%.

• In 2023, the 13 to 17 years category population was 21.6 million. By 2035, it will fall by 2.3 million, a decline of 10.5%. In 2035, there will be 19.3 million in the category. 

• Finally, in 2023, there were 31.4 million in the 18 to 24 years category. By 2035, it will slip by 1.7 million to 29.7 million.

The 0 to 24 years population was 24.2% of the population in 2023. With a decline of 5.8 million, it will be only 21.5% of the population in 2035.

In 2023, the 0 to 24-year-old population included members of the Gen Alpha and Gen Z generations.  

Population Change by Age Categories (The Prime Years – 25 to 54 Years)

The data from Table II tells a more positive story. The analysis considers the prime years as the ideal years to be tennis players, professionals, and coaches. Overall, the population will increase in the three categories.

• Population will increase by 1.3 million for the 25 to 34 years, the largest category (45.6 million). Growth will be weak for the 25 and 29-year-olds and negative for 30 to 32-year-olds. In 2023, this category included the Gen Z and Millennial generations.

• The second largest group is 35 to 44 years old. It will increase by 3.2 million and be the largest group in 2035, with 47.3 million. There was positive job growth for all years. In 2023, this group included the Millenial and Gen X generations.

• The smallest prime years group is 45 to 54 years (40.4 million in 2023). It will increase by 4.3 million, and there was strong growth every year, except for 51 to 53 years. In 2023, this category included members of the Gen X generation.

• The increase for the three categories will be 6.8%; however, the share of the total population will only increase from 38.9% to 39.6%.

Population Change by Age Categories (Seniors and Super Seniors)

There is mixed news in Table III, the Senior and Super Senior categories.

• The 55 to 64-year-old category is a small market for tennis players. It is the largest senior group with 41.7 million, yet it will decline to 38.5 million by 2035. There will be declines from ages 56 to 67, in part due to the aging of the baby boomers. In 2023, the category included members of the Baby Boomers and Gen X generations.

• The 65 to 74 years will increase by 2.4 million. There is weak age growth from ages 65 to 69 and strong age growth from 1970 to 1974. The categories include members of the Baby Boomer generation.

• The 75 to 84 years is the smallest senior age category. There was robust growth for every age (single year), and the category will add 9.2 million. Unfortunately, there are few tennis players or professionals in this category. In 2023, the category included the Baby Boomer and Silent Generations.

• The Super Senior category was about 2.0% of the population in 2023. By 2035, it will increase by 4.5 million to 11.2 million. There are very few tennis players in this category. In 2023, its members included members of the Silent and Greatest generations.

Bring Your “A” Game

In 2024, tennis leaders are challenged and distracted by many prominent issues, such as accreditation, certification of members, sponsorships, Safe Sport compliance, high-performance programs, the actions of other associations, and much more.

Hopefully, the above charts, tables, and analysis have made a case that the industry must bring its “A” game to attract and retain tennis players and catch the attention of the best and the brightest to be leaders in the tennis industry. Without the people to fill the courts and lead the industry, the issues in the first paragraph are irrelevant.

Industry leaders must understand that within the next decade, they will face multiple demographic challenges, of which having a smaller market in critical age groups is front and center. They must bring their “A” game to create more interest in tennis and keep the current players on the courts.

In addition, Gary Horvath has conducted extensive business and economic research that has largely supported the state of Colorado's economic development efforts.