U.S. Population Growth Unlikely to Increase Tennis Participation

The dream of many tennis leaders is to strengthen the various segments of the business of tennis (tennis facilities, manufacturers, media, wholesalers, retailers, and more). One facet of that process is to increase tennis participation - effectively attract and retain avid players, tennis professionals, and coaches.

This brief discussion addresses the role that U.S. population changes will play in increasing the number of tennis participants. The data shows that projected changes in the U.S. population will present obstacles to increasing tennis participation over the next decade.

To get past these challenges, tennis leaders must work for the good of the business of tennis (get out of their silos). The path to success will include efficient promotion of tennis events, more targeted marketing of the sport, strengthening the capabilities of the tennis workforce, creating greater access to facilities, and much more.

Projected Population Changes 2023 to 2035 and Beyond
The data in Chart I shows the United States population from 2023 to 2045 (blue).

• The projected population will increase from 334,906,305 in 2023 to 350,861,084 in 2035, an increase of 15,954,779.

• The projected population will increase to 358,437,973 in 2045, an increase of 7,576,880 from 2035.

• The population in 2045 will increase by 23,531,668 from 2023.

The downward slope of the burnt orange line shows how the population increases at a decelerating rate.

• The over-the-year (OTY) population change will increase by 1,618,748 (right axis) in 2023.

• By 2035, the OTY projected population increase will be 1,053,437.

• It will be 534,579 in 2045.

Projected Changes in Population 2023 vs 2035

The data in Chart II compares the estimated single-year (0 to 100+) United States population for 2023 (blue) with the projected single-year population for 2035 (burnt orange). As previously stated, the 2035 population is about 16 million more than the 2023 population. It is obvious that the distribution is not even for each age group. 

The effect of the declining U.S. fertility rate is evident. In 2035, there are fewer people in the 0 to 25 age groups.

There are also fewer people in the 57 to 68 age group.

In 2035, there will be a lot more people above the age of 68.

Changes by Population Age Categories

The data in Table I summarizes the differences between 2023 and 2035, illustrated in Chart II. Notably, the 2035 projection is less than the 2023 estimate in four categories and greater in five.

The effect of lower fertility rates is evident in the first three 2035 age categories (0-5, 6-17, and 18-24). The 2035 values are all less than their corresponding value for 2023. The combined difference of these three categories (0-24) is 5,818,604. The shortfalls are problematic in areas other than tennis, such as K-12 and college enrollments.

The good news is that the population for the age groups 25 to 54, the prime years for tennis (as players or tennis professionals), will be 8,787,683 greater in 2035.

The senior years (55+) are intriguing. In 2035, there will be 3,148,734 fewer people in the 55 to 64 age group. The projections call for an increase of 16,134,434 in the 65 and older age group, representing the aging of the Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and the Silent Generation.

Changes by Generation

The data in Table II analyzes the data in Chart II from a generational perspective. It shows that Baby Boomers are past their prime tennis years (25 to 55) playing and working as tennis professionals or coaches.

Gen X is beginning to exit the range for their prime years. By 2035, Gen X will be beyond their prime years, and the tennis population will be composed of Millennials, Gen Zers, and the Alpha Generation.

Changes in Generational Wealth

The U.S. Tennis Participation Reports indicate that tennis players have higher than average incomes than the public, i.e., tennis is an elite sport. Table III shows that beginning around 2010, the household wealth of the Baby Boomers and Gen Xers began to increase. Around the same time, tennis participation became stagnant. The total wealth of these two generations increased by 213% between Q1 2010 and Q1 2024. Given the wealth accumulation by these generations, it is puzzling why tennis participation was stagnant between 2010 and 2019 and why there was limited investment in the sport.

The Population and Tennis Population in 2035

Between 2023 and 2035, the U.S. population will increase by about 16 million. That is good news! The bad news is that the projected population will grow at a decreasing rate during that period.

• The projected under-25 age U.S. population will have fewer people in 2035 compared to 2023. How will industry leaders attract and retain avid tennis players in these age groups?

• Similarly, a projected population for the 55 to 65 age group shows fewer people in 2035 compared to 2023. What will the industry do to attract and retain avid tennis players in this age group?

• There is good news for the 2035 25 to 54 age group. These categories (25-34-34-45, and 45-54) are in their prime years for tennis (as players or tennis professionals). The projected population for this group will be 8,787,683 greater in 2035 than in 2023. How can industry leaders start today to ensure there is effective market penetration for the 2035 prime-time tennis market?

In 2023, all Baby Boomers were past their prime tennis years (25 to 55), and Gen Xers had begun to exit on stage right. That exit will be complete by 2035, i.e., the tennis population will exclusively feature Millennials and Gen Zers.

• How will the industry take steps today to ensure that Gen Zers are active in the industry (as players or teaching professionals) in 2035?

• What steps will the industry take today to attract and retain Millennials for 2035?

The wealth of the Baby Boomers, and Gen Xers increased by 213% between 2010 and 2023, yet between 2010 and 2019, participation in the industry was stagnant.

• What strategies from the 2010s did not benefit the industry? What will be done to prevent them from being repeated? How can tennis leaders work more closely together over the next decade to strengthen the business of tennis?

• How can the benefactors of the recent wealth creation invest in the tennis industry or become more enthusiastic about working with others to strengthen the business of tennis?

Over the past 60 years, efforts to increase participation have been well-intended but short-lived. The Battle of the Sexes match in 1973 caused a boom in tennis participation and a bust followed shortly after, as players exited for racketball and running. In 2020, the government-imposed COVID-19-related policies created a second boom. That boom has ended, but a bust has not followed yet.

As shown in this discussion, it is unlikely that notable changes in tennis participation or the business of tennis will occur by relying on changes in the U.S. population alone. Over the next decade, the tennis leaders will have to pull together in ways that have not happened in the past to improve the business of tennis.

In addition, Gary Horvath has conducted extensive business and economic research that has largely supported the state of Colorado's economic development efforts.