What is the Probability of Playing a College Sport?

What is the Probability of Playing a College Sport?

Youth sports have become big business! The Aspen Institute and Project Play released research about a year ago, indicating that Americans spend over $40 billion annually on youth sports programs. Total spending could reach $70 billion in 2030.

Part of this spending is based on the belief, by parents and athletes, that playing college sports is an outcome of participating in youth programs. That will be the focus of this discussion.

• The primary purpose of Recreational Activities is exercise and mental stimulation. Activities may be structured or unstructured. Scoreboards, coaches, and officials are optional. Recreational activity may include mountain biking and playing tennis with friends on the neighborhood courts.

• Competitive Activities are a structured form of physical activity. There are teams, coaches, officials, and scoreboards, and there are winners and losers. Sports at this level are played for the love of the game and the thrill of competition.

• Elite Competition is a structured activity. At this level, the activities exist to determine a winner. Elite competition may be a form of entertainment. These activities may exist for financial gain. Many college and professional sports programs are in this category.

The hierarchy of these activities, based on skills, follows:

• Elite Competition is most important. They have the highest level of skills. Their success is measured based on their performance.

• Competitive Athletes often have a high level of skills, but they are usually less than elite athletes. They play for the love of the game.

• Participation in Recreational Activities is more important than the level of performance for the athletes in this category.

Take another look at the Project Play image above. Participation is more important than skills.

• The area in the image for Recreational Activities is the largest. It is the most important category because more athletes compete at this level.

• Competitive Activities are next in line. They have the second largest participation base.

• Elite Competition has the least number of participants and is the least important.

The image mentions the concept of Physical Literacy. It is defined as the tools needed to build healthy communities through sports. In the Project Play visualization, the focus is on participation and learning from the social benefits associated with playing sports.

NCAA Data - The Relationship between High School and College Sports

The NCAA provides the probabilities for men's and women's high school athletes who want to become college athletes and turn pro. These probabilities do not factor in risks such as injuries, poor coaching, burnout, and program funding.

Probability of Men High School Athletes Playing in NCAA Programs

As expected, the largest number of men participants play football. There are over one million high school players and about 84,000 college players. The probability of high school football players playing at the college level is about 8.1%. The chances are about 3.4% in DI and 4.7% in DII or DIII. The smallest chance of playing college is wrestling (3.0%), and the highest percentage is in lacrosse (14.7%). Of the 14 sports listed, only two have double-digit percentages – lacrosse and ice hockey. The chance of playing college tennis is 4.7%. The odds are greatest in DIII (2.1%), followed by 1.5% in DI and 1.0% in DII. The probability of playing college golf is 5.4%, slightly higher than tennis.

Probability of Women High School Athletes Playing in NCAA Programs

The largest number of women participate in track and field. There are almost 513,808 high school athletes and about 33,519 college track athletes. The probability of women high school track athletes participating on a college team is 6.5%. Women’s volleyball has increased in popularity in recent years; however, the chance of playing on a team is only 4.0%. Tennis is tied with volleyball for the lowest probability. Basketball is only slightly better at 4.7%. At the other end of the spectrum is ice hockey (32.1%), followed by lacrosse (14.0%).

Probability of Playing Professionally

There is limited information about college athletes who want to play professional sports. For the sports listed, the greatest chance is in men’s and women’s hockey. Of the big three team sports, the greatest chance of turning pro is in baseball (4.9%). The probability is much smaller for playing professional football, lacrosse, and men’s and women’s basketball.

Probability of Playing Sports at an Elite Level

Looking forward, quality instructional and playing programs are essential for Elite, Competitive, and Recreational athletes. Each category has distinct skill levels and unique challenges. Leaders in each industry must recognize the sport-specific needs for each group of athletes based on their skill levels.

From an instructional perspective, there is a long-standing debate over the following question, “Which group (recreational, competitive, and elite) of athletes should be taught by the best and brightest coaches?” To attract and retain more athletes in all sports, it is essential to have “the best and the brightest” coaches and professionals teaching at all levels in all sports.

In addition, Gary Horvath has conducted extensive business and economic research that has largely supported the state of Colorado's economic development efforts.