Padel vs Pickleball: who will win the race?

That’s a bold prediction given that Padel is exploding in key European and US markets, whilst Pickleball is a non-entity outside of the US - but I nevertheless believe that it has all the ingredients to win the long game. 

1. Pickleball scales globally because it doesn’t require purpose-built infrastructures:

The sport that can reuse the world’s existing courts has a structural advantage over the sport that needs to build new ones. A Pickleball court fits easily inside existing Tennis, Badminton, school and multi-purpose courts. Not only that, unlike Padel, it needs no specialist installers – anyone can paint a few lines with a measuring tape. This makes Pickleball ideal for Asia, Africa and South America.

2. Global governing momentum is accelerating:

The International Federation of Pickleball (IFP) now has 70+ member countries across Europe, Asia, Africa, Oceania and the Americas. Padel, by contrast, is highly concentrated in Spain, Italy, Argentina, Sweden and France – and penetration outside of Europe and Latin America remains limited by infrastructure costs and climate constraints.

3. Asia will win the long game and that ends the global race:

Asia struggle with high land costs, dense cities and limited recreational space. Pickleball fits in school gyms, community halls, Badminton courts, aligns culturally with Badminton and Table Tennis nations and requires minimal coaching to get people playing socially.

India is the perfect example of this transition with their tens of millions of Badminton players transitioning to Pickleball on courts built in residential complexes, schools and other open spaces - the Indian federation is reporting triple-digit growth rates.

On the other hand, Padel’s glass-court model is far tougher to sell in these environments.

4. Climate neutrality gives Pickleball a global edge:

Padel thrives in mild climates and, if not, indoor facilities. Pickleball on the other hand works both in- and outdoor, hot, cold, humid and dry climates, on concrete, acrylic, wood and synthetic floors. And let’s not even talk about how Padel balls are much more sensitive to inclement weather than Pickleball balls.

That matters globally because many of the key emerging markets are located in hot, wet and humid environments.

5. Pickleball integrates better with existing racket sports.

Globally, Pickleball is being adopted by Tennis federations, Badminton clubs, multi-sport centers and school sport programs. This matters commercially because brands can cross-sell, coaches can upskill quickly and facilities can add Pickleball without cannibalizing core sports.

So, whilst Padel by its infrastructural nature REPLACES space, Pickleball instead ADDS activity.

I believe that Padel’s growth should not be underestimated – but neither should it be overestimated because it is structurally capped. It will continue to thrive in its established markets of southern Europe, Latin America and will find success in high-income urban spaces in the US. But its reliance on purpose-built courts, club access and real-estate investment will create a natural ceiling to global mass participation.

Pickleball’s ceiling is far higher- even if it’s short-term profile looks flatter outside of the US today. Pickleball’s real strength at this stage of global development and expansion is not its popularity but its “deployability”.

Hence, whilst Padel is building depth in the right markets, it will be Pickleball that will be building breadth everywhere else.